Project and content management for Contemporary Authors volumes
WORK TITLE: The New Sultan
WORK NOTES:
PSEUDONYM(S):
BIRTHDATE: 1970
WEBSITE: https://www.cagaptay.com/
CITY:
STATE:
COUNTRY:
NATIONALITY: Turkish
Turkish-American * http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/view/cagaptay-soner
RESEARCHER NOTES:
PERSONAL
Born 1970.
EDUCATION:Yale University, Ph.D., 2003.
ADDRESS
CAREER
Writer and political scientist. Princeton University, NJ, Ertegun Professor, 2006-07; Georgetown University, Washington, DC, visiting professor; Foreign Service Institute, Washington, DC, chair of Turkey Advance Area Studies Program; Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, DC, director of Turkish Research Program, Beyer Family fellow. Has also taught at Yale University and Smith College.
AWARDS:Young Society Leader award, American Turkish Society, 2012. Recipient of Smith-Richardson, Leylan, Rice, and Mellon fellowships.
WRITINGS
Contributor of articles to publications, including the International Herald Tribune, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Times. Columnist for Hurriyet Daily News; contributor to CNN’s Global Public Square blog.
SIDELIGHTS
Soner Cagaptay is a writer and political scientist whose work focuses on issues related to Turkey. He holds a Ph.D. from Yale University. Cagaptay has taught at Yale and other colleges, including Princeton University, Georgetown University, and Smith College. He has worked for the Foreign Service Institute, which is part of the U.S. Department of State. Cagaptay has also served as the director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He has written articles that have appeared in publications, including the International Herald Tribune, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Times. Cagaptay is the author of the 2006 volume, Islam, Secularism, and Nationalism in Modern Turkey: Who Is a Turk?.
The Rise of Turkey
In 2014, Cagaptay released the book, The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-first Century’s First Muslim Power. In this volume, he profiles Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country’s Prime Minister and the leader of the Justice and Development Party. Cagaptay explains how Erdogan and his party have made Turkey a more powerful and stable country. However, he notes that Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian leadership style may prove to be problematic. Cagaptay discusses Islam’s importance in the country’s political scene, and he comments on the relationships Turkey has with nearby countries.
Reviewing The Rise of Turkey on the Hurriyet Daily News website, William Armstrong suggested: “The essence of the book’s argument is that everything is still up for grabs: Turkey could yet become an open and inclusive society, a global player and a dynamic economy projecting soft power in its region, or it could fall back and become a basket case again. In these caliginous times, even this conclusion feels like wishful thinking.” Other assessments of the book were more favorable. H. Shamayati, critic in Choice, commented: “Cagaptay does an excellent job in outlining the challenges and choices that confront contemporary Turkey.” Writing in Parameters, W. Andrew Terrill asserted: “Soner Cagaptay’s study on Turkey delivers significantly more than the title implies. While the author unquestionably addresses Turkey’s rising global role and vastly strengthened economy, he also provides insightful analysis of Turkish social and political transformation since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) took power in 2002.”
The New Sultan
The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey finds Cagaptay taking a more in-depth look at Erdogan and his administration. He discusses Erdogan’s early political career and explains how he came to power. Cagaptay compares him to other conservative nationalists that have recently been elected in other countries. Though he believes Erdogan has done good things for the Turkish economy, he believe his authoritarianism will ultimately be destructive. Cagaptay offers suggestions for changing the course the country is following.
“Cagaptay offers appealing fixes such as a liberal constitution … but little reason to believe that any of this can happen,” remarked a Publishers Weekly writer. Armstrong, the reviewer on the Hurriyet Daily News Online, suggested: “Cagaptay’s sensible diagnosis for bringing Turkey back from the brink—recommitting to the EU and expanding rights and liberties for all—looks rather naïve. … This classic liberal theory may apply in some circumstances; it is doubtful whether reality will conform in today’s Turkey.” In a more favorable assessment, Chris R. Kilford, contributor to the Canadian International Council website, described The New Sultan as an “outstanding and wide-ranging book.” Kilford commented: “The New Sultan, besides being an important companion for seasoned Turkey watchers is also a very valuable reference for anyone trying to understand how events since 2007 have given way to the current situation.” Kilford concluded: “For anyone interested in understanding how Turkey has reached this particular point in its history, and what the future will likely have in store, The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey is a well-researched and very informative read.”
BIOCRIT
PERIODICALS
Choice, November, 2014, H. Shambayati, review of The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-first Century’s First Muslim Power, p. 524.
Parameters, summer, 2015, W. Andrew Terrill, review of The Rise of Turkey, p. 120.
Publishers Weekly, May 29, 2017, review of The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey, p. 57.
ONLINE
Canadian International Council Website, https://thecic.org/ (December 4, 2017), Chris R. Kilford, review of The New Sultan.
Foreign Affairs Online, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ (March 15, 2018), John Waterbury, review of The New Sultan.
Hurriyet Daily News Online, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ (March 13, 2014), William Armstrong, review of The Rise of Turkey; (September 21, 2017), William Armstrong, review of The New Sultan.
New Sultan Website, https://www.newsultan.info (April 10, 2018), author profile.
Soner Cagaptay Website, https://www.cagaptay.com (April 10, 2018).
Washington Institute Website, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/ (April 10, 2018), author profile.
Soner Cagaptay
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Soner Çağaptay is a Turkish-American political scientist based in the United States.[1] He is director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.[2] He is a historian by training and is an expert on Turkey–United States relations, Turkish politics, and Turkish nationalism.
Contents
1 Education
2 Career
2.1 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
2.2 Teaching
2.3 Honors
3 In the media
4 Books
5 Articles
6 Videos
7 References
8 External links
Education
Cagaptay received a Ph.D. in history from Yale University in 2003. He wrote his doctoral dissertation on Turkish nationalism.
Besides English and Turkish, his research languages include French, German, Spanish, Bosnian, Hebrew, Azerbaijani, and Ottoman Turkish.[3]
Career
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP).
Teaching
A historian by training, Dr. Cagaptay wrote his doctoral dissertation at Yale University (2003) on Turkish nationalism. Dr. Cagaptay has taught courses at Yale, Princeton University, Georgetown University, and Smith College on the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Eastern Europe. His spring 2003 course on modern Turkish history was the first offered by Yale in three decades. From 2006-2007, he was Ertegun Professor at Princeton University's Department of Near Eastern Studies.
He was a visiting professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.[4]
He has also served on contract as chair of the Turkey Advanced Area Studies Program at the State Department's Foreign Service Institute.[5]
Honors
Dr. Cagaptay is the recipient of numerous honors, grants, and chairs, among them the Smith-Richardson, Mellon, Rice, and Leylan fellowships, as well as the Ertegun chair at Princeton. He has also served on contract as chair of the Turkey Advanced Area Studies Program at the State Department's Foreign Service Institute. In 2012 he was named an American Turkish Society Young Society Leader. He is the author of three books on modern Turkey: Islam, Secularism, and Nationalism in Turkey: Who is a Turk (2006); The Rise of Turkey: 21st Century’s First Muslim Power (2014); and The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey (2017).
In the media
Cagaptay has written extensively on Turkey–United States relations; Turkish domestic politics; Turkish nationalism; Turkey's rise as an economic power and Ankara's Middle East policy, publishing in scholarly journals and major international print media. These include the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Times, International Herald Tribune, Jane's Defense Weekly, and Habertürk. He is a regular columnist for Hürriyet Daily News, Turkey's oldest and most influential English-language paper, and a contributor to CNN's Global Public Square blog. He appears regularly on Fox News, CNN, NPR, al-Jazeera, BBC, and CNN-Turk.
Books
Islam, Secularism, and Nationalism in Modern Turkey: Who Is a Turk? Review, January 2006.
The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century's First Muslim Power, February 2014.
The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey (July 30, 2017) ISBN 978-1784538262
Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. He has written extensively on U.S.-Turkish relations, Turkish domestic politics, and Turkish nationalism, publishing in scholarly journals and major international print media. A historian by training, Dr. Cagaptay wrote his doctoral dissertation at Yale University (2003) on Turkish nationalism. Dr. Cagaptay has taught courses at Yale, Princeton University, Georgetown University, and Smith College on the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Eastern Europe
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Beyer Family Fellow
Director, Turkish Research Program
urrent research:
Syrian civil war
U.S.-Turkey relations
Turkish domestic politics
Ankara’s Middle East policy
EU-Turkey relations
Turkey-Kurdish relations
PKK and PYD
Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. He has written extensively on U.S.-Turkish relations, Turkish domestic politics, and Turkish nationalism, publishing in scholarly journals and major international print media, including the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, New York Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Atlantic. He has been a regular columnist for Hürriyet Daily News, Turkey's oldest and most influential English-language paper, and a contributor to CNN's Global Public Square blog. He appears regularly on CNN, NPR, Voice of America, and BBC.
A historian by training, Dr. Cagaptay wrote his doctoral dissertation at Yale University (2003) on Turkish nationalism. Dr. Cagaptay has taught courses at Yale, Princeton University, Georgetown University, and Smith College on the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Eastern Europe. His spring 2003 course on modern Turkish history was the first offered by Yale in three decades. From 2006-2007, he was Ertegun Professor at Princeton University's Department of Near Eastern Studies.
Dr. Cagaptay is the recipient of numerous honors, grants, and chairs, among them the Smith-Richardson, Mellon, Rice, and Leylan fellowships, as well as the Ertegun chair at Princeton. He has also served on contract as chair of the Turkey Advanced Area Studies Program at the State Department's Foreign Service Institute. In 2012 he was named an American Turkish Society Young Society Leader. He is the author of three books on modern Turkey: Islam, Secularism, and Nationalism in Turkey: Who is a Turk (2006); The Rise of Turkey: 21st Century’s First Muslim Power (2014); and The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey (2017).
Soner Cagaptay
00:0000:01
Name Pronunciation
Beyer Family Fellow
Director, Turkish Research Program
Tel: 202-230-9550 (media inquiries only) 202-452-0650 (all other inquiries)
press@washingtoninstitute.org
Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.
Jump to:Bio Languages
AREAS OF EXPERTISE
Turkey
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CURRENT RESEARCH
Turkey’s rise as an economic power, Ankara’s Middle East policy, Turkey and Syria, the PKK and PYD, U.S.-Turkey relations, Turkish elections of 2015, the new Turkish constitution, Turkish domestic politics
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BIOGRAPHY
Soner Çağaptay'ın Özgeçmişi (PDF)
Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. He has written extensively on U.S.-Turkish relations, Turkish domestic politics, and Turkish nationalism, publishing in scholarly journals and major international print media, including the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, New York Times, Jane's Defense Weekly, Foreign Affairs, Atlantic, New Republic, and Newsweek Türkiye. He has been a regular columnist for Hürriyet Daily News, Turkey's oldest and most influential English-language paper, and a contributor to CNN's Global Public Square blog. He appears regularly on Fox News, CNN, NPR, Voice of America, BBC, and CNN-Turk.
A historian by training, Dr. Cagaptay wrote his doctoral dissertation at Yale University (2003) on Turkish nationalism. Dr. Cagaptay has taught courses at Yale, Princeton University, Georgetown University, and Smith College on the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Eastern Europe. His spring 2003 course on modern Turkish history was the first offered by Yale in three decades. From 2006-2007, he was Ertegun Professor at Princeton University's Department of Near Eastern Studies.
Dr. Cagaptay is the recipient of numerous honors, grants, and chairs, among them the Smith-Richardson, Mellon, Rice, and Leylan fellowships, as well as the Ertegun chair at Princeton. He has also served on contract as chair of the Turkey Advanced Area Studies Program at the State Department's Foreign Service Institute. In 2012 he was named an American Turkish Society Young Society Leader.
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LANGUAGES SPOKEN / READ
French
German
Hebrew
Spanish
Turkish
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PUBLICATIONS
The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey
April 24, 2017
Monographs
The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century's First Muslim Power
January 2, 2014
Monographs
Islam, Secularism, and Nationalism in Modern Turkey:
January 1, 2006
Monographs
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MOST RECENT ANALYSIS
In Long-Secular Turkey, Sharia Is Gradually Taking Over
February 16, 2018
Time for Tillerson to Repair U.S. Ties with Turkey
February 15, 2018
Turkey: A Partner in Crisis
February 13, 2018
How Europe Lost Turkey
February 12, 2018
NATO Leaders Need to Have a Frank Talk with Turkey's President -- Behind Closed Doors
January 26, 2018
Will Turkey Call Early Elections?
January 11, 2018
To Save Turkey's Democracy, the Country's Opposition Must Offer Erdogan a Grand Bargain
January 8, 2018
Authoritarianism, Politics, and Literature in Turkey
November 21, 2017
Tourism Patterns Show Turkey Shifting from Europe to the Middle East
October 30, 2017
Turkey and U.S. Enter Most Important Crisis in Recent Memory
October 10, 2017
SEE ALL ANALYSIS BY THIS AUTHOR
SELECTED OUTSIDE PUBLICATIONS
"Türklüge Geçis: Modern Türkiye'de Göç ve Din" Haldun Gülalp (der.) Vatandaslik ve Etnik Çatisma ["Transition to Turkishness: Migration and Religion in Modern Turkey" in Haldun Gulalp (ed.) Citizenship and Ethnic Conflict] (Istanbul: Metis, 2007).
"Passage to Turkishness: Immigration and Religion in Modern Turkey," Haldun Gulalp, ed., Nationalism and Citizenship (London: Routledge, 2006).
Islam, Secularism and Nationalism in Modern Turkey: Who Is a Turk? (London: Routledge, 2006). Read a review or see the Turkish edition.
"Where Goes the U.S.-Turkish Relationship?" Middle East Quarterly XI, no 4 (fall 2004).
"Race, Assimilation and Kemalism: Turkish Nationalism and the Minorities in the 1930s," Middle Eastern Studies 40, no. 3 (May 2004)
"Citizenship and Nationalism in Interwar Turkey," Nations and Nationalism 9, no. 4 (October 2003)
"Kim Türk, Kim Vatandas? Erken Cumhuriyet Dönemi Vatandaslik Rejimi üzerine bir Çalisma," ("Who Is Turkish, Who Is a Citizen? A Study on the Citizenship Regime of Early Turkish Republic") Toplum Bilim (Istanbul), no. 98 (Fall 2003)
"The November 2002 Elections and Turkey's New Political Era," Middle East Review of International Affairs 6, no. 4 (December 2002)
QUOTED: "Cagaptay offers appealing fixes such as a liberal constitution ... but little reason to believe that any of this can happen."
The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey
Publishers Weekly. 264.22 (May 29, 2017): p57.
Copyright: COPYRIGHT 2017 PWxyz, LLC
http://www.publishersweekly.com/
Full Text:
The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey
Soner Cagaptay. I.B. Tauris, $25 (224p) ISBN 978-1-78453-826-2
Cagaptay, a political scientist who directs the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, argues for a liberal path to securing the country's future in this well-researched treatise. He also shows how Turkey's powerful president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is taking the country in the opposite direction. Cagaptay narrates Erdogan's rise to power on the same wave of conservative nationalist politics currently washing over many other countries. The author is fair-minded in crediting Erdogan with reviving Turkey's economy and bringing much of the nation out of poverty and into the middle class. However, Cagaptay also shows that Erdogan has gained power by demonizing his opponents and his onetime supporters, the Gulenists, badly dividing the country, with the possible consequence of civil war. The failed military coup in the summer of 2016 allowed Erdogan to consolidate and extend his authority in the name of stability. Erdogan's foreign policy forays have been failures, leaving him with little support from Middle Eastern countries while alienating the E.U., U.S., and Russia. Cagaptay offers appealing fixes such as a liberal constitution, a democratic, open society, and a tech-oriented economy, but little reason to believe that any of this can happen in the face of Erdogan's formidable opposition. (Aug.)
Source Citation (MLA 8th Edition)
"The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey." Publishers Weekly, 29 May 2017, p. 57. General OneFile, http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A494500751/ITOF?u=schlager&sid=ITOF&xid=63f8aa8d. Accessed 15 Mar. 2018.
Gale Document Number: GALE|A494500751
QUOTED: "Cagaptay does an excellent job in outlining the challenges and choices that confront contemporary Turkey."
Cagaptay, Soner. The rise of Turkey: the twenty-first century's first Muslim power
H. Shambayati
CHOICE: Current Reviews for Academic Libraries. 52.3 (Nov. 2014): p524.
Copyright: COPYRIGHT 2014 American Library Association CHOICE
http://www.ala.org/acrl/choice/about
Full Text:
Cagaptay, Soner. The rise of Turkey: the twenty-first century's first Muslim power. Potomac Books, 2014. 168p bibl index afp 9781612346502 cloth, $25.95
52-1640
JQ1805
2013-34280
CIP
This short but timely book provides a window into Turkish politics under the Justice and Development Party (2002-present). Each chapter deals with a specific issue--ranging from the role of Islam in politics to Turkey's relations with its neighbors--and starts in a different Turkish city, giving the book the feel of a political travelogue that guides the reader through the complex world of contemporary Turkish politics. Cagaptay (The Washington Institute) recognizes the achievements of the Justice and Development Party and its charismatic leader, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in introducing democratic reforms and stabilizing Turkey's political and economic arenas. However, the chapters also identify some of the challenges that Turkey faces because of the authoritarian tendencies of the ruling party that has dominated Turkish politics over the past decade and the deeper structural obstacles that Turkish leaders have been unable or unwilling to address. Although the analysis appears superficial in places--a hazard of writing short essays on complex issues for the general public--Cagaptay does an excellent job in outlining the challenges and choices that confront contemporary Turkey. Summing Up: ** Recommended. General readers; upper-division undergraduate students, and above.--H. Shambayati Florida Gulf Coast University
Shambayati, H.
Source Citation (MLA 8th Edition)
Shambayati, H. "Cagaptay, Soner. The rise of Turkey: the twenty-first century's first Muslim power." CHOICE: Current Reviews for Academic Libraries, Nov. 2014, p. 524. General OneFile, http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A388824982/ITOF?u=schlager&sid=ITOF&xid=3d1ad1a8. Accessed 15 Mar. 2018.
Gale Document Number: GALE|A388824982
QUOTED: "Soner Cagaptay's study on Turkey delivers significantly more than the title implies. While the author unquestionably addresses Turkey's rising global role and vastly strengthened economy, he also provides insightful analysis of Turkish social and political transformation since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) took power in 2002."
The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century's First Muslim Power
W. Andrew Terrill
Parameters. 45.2 (Summer 2015): p120+.
Copyright: COPYRIGHT 2015 U.S. Army War College
http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/
Full Text:
The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century's First Muslim Power
By Soner Cagaptay
Dulles, Virginia: Potomac
Books, 2014, 168 pages
$25.95
[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]
Soner Cagaptay's study on Turkey delivers significantly more than the title implies. While the author unquestionably addresses Turkey's rising global role and vastly strengthened economy, he also provides insightful analysis of Turkish social and political transformation since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) took power in 2002. This transformation centers on what the author describes as the end of Kemalism as the Turkish guiding ideology. Kemalism is the vision of Turkey's modern founder, Kemal Ataturk, for his country's social and political future. It is best described as a European-oriented, top-down Westernization and secularization approach, which also includes a special domestic role for the military in protecting secular democracy. According to Cagaptay, the AKP has now moved Turkey into a post-Kemalist phase as Ataturk's political vision is increasingly set aside, and the government establishes a greater role for Islam in the public sphere. He describes some of the new AKP policies as government-imposed social conservatism and top-down social engineering. To illustrate this point, the author notes government institutions now openly discriminate against secular Turks in hiring and promotions, and this situation is particularly problematic for women who choose not to wear the headscarf.
The architect of this vastly changed Turkey is Tayyip Erdogan, who served as prime minister for 11 years and then became Turkey's first elected president in August 2014. Erdogan and his party have been able win a series of consecutive national elections by drawing on the strong support of voters from struggling low income neighborhoods, where religion is often taken very seriously. Many residents of these neighborhoods find Erdogan an appealing figure due to both his policy positions and his childhood in Kasimpasa, a tough, low income, Istanbul neighborhood. Unsurprisingly, many AKP supporters also resent their country's secular and Westernized elites epitomized by the Republican People's Party (CHP). Moreover, the increased strength of the economy allows the AKP government to invest in education, health care, and other social programs that benefit the poor, thereby consolidating the loyalties of many low income voters. In this environment, Erdogan is poised to remain the dominant figure in Turkish politics despite his decision to change offices in response to internal AKP rules on term limits for prime minister.
As prime minister, Erdogan, like Ataturk, used the force of his personality to impose his worldview on Turkish society. He has also governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner, and the AKP leadership has targeted some of its most assertive critics including media figures and court officials for whatever punishment it can direct at them. Steep fines have been leveled at the independent media on fairly flimsy grounds, while Turkey has now surpassed China and Iran as the country with the highest number of journalists in prison. The AKP government has also eliminated the military's role in Turkish politics through mass arrests and intimidation of officers, often involving illegal surveillance supposedly implemented to prevent a coup. The Turkish military has been one of the most Westernized segments of Turkish society since 1826, and its leadership viewed the protection of Ataturk's vision of a secular Turkey as one of its most important duties from the 1920s until the recent successful AKP's moves to break the military's political power.
Against the AKP tide is an opposition that Cagaptay characterizes as, "the other Turkey" (76). This group includes secularists who often back the CHP, and comprise a significant segment (but not a majority) of the electorate. In recent elections, the CHP has often done well with middle class and upper middle class voters (especially women) and also with Turks descended from families expelled from former Ottoman Empire territories in Europe. The liberal, minority Islamic Alevis sect was granted political freedoms by Ataturk, and overwhelmingly tends to support secular parties such as the CHP. Despite these advantages, the CHP has faced crippling difficulties due to its failure to modernize and present a more inclusive vision for the countrjt Cagaptay states the CHP needs to recognize and take advantage of the distinction between government-sponsored social conservatism and non-political religious devotion if it is ever to regain power. Cagaptay also includes many Kurds (especially from the southeast) as part of the "other Turkey." He suggests this group is becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the leading political parties since it has witnessed Iraqi (and to a lesser extent Syrian) Kurds become more autonomous, albeit in response to internal disorder in those countries. Accordingly, many within the Kurdish community support the secular Democratic Regions Party (BDP), which is a Kurdish nationalist party. Kurdish opposition to the AKP is not total however, and the party has maintained a respectable showing among conservative religious Kurds in recent elections.
Cagaptay asserts both secularists and Islamists need to find common ground if Turkey is to avoid becoming hopelessly polarized and increasingly authoritarian. He is particularly concerned about differences over possible plans to write a new constitution. The author further maintains the 1982 Constitution, written by the military, "reads like a boarding school's 'don't do list'" (149), and many Turks would like to replace it. Yet, an Islamist constitution would almost certainly be a disaster for Turkey, producing massive anger among large segments of the population. Instead, Cagaptay calls for a constitution with a strong emphasis on individual rights, allowing people to express Islamist or secular ideals as they see fit. He contends a future Turkey embracing its Muslim identity while maintaining its ties to the West could emerge as a powerful global player, but this will not occur if the country is polarized by poisonous, winner-take-all attitudes towards the country's future.
Reviewed by W. Andrew Terrill, PhD, Research Professor, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College
Terrill, W. Andrew
Source Citation (MLA 8th Edition)
Terrill, W. Andrew. "The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century's First Muslim Power." Parameters, Summer 2015, p. 120+. General OneFile, http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A434320418/ITOF?u=schlager&sid=ITOF&xid=f70b6e22. Accessed 15 Mar. 2018.
Gale Document Number: GALE|A434320418
QUOTED: "Cagaptay’s sensible diagnosis for bringing Turkey back from the brink—recommitting to the EU and expanding rights and liberties for all—looks rather naïve. ... This classic liberal theory may apply in some circumstances; it is doubtful whether reality will conform in today’s Turkey."
September 21 2017 By WILLIAM ARMSTRONG william.armstrong@hdn.com.tr
Erdoğan and the crisis of modern Turkey
William Armstrong - william.armstrong@hdn.com.tr
Erdoğan and the crisis of modern Turkey
President Erdoğan delivers a speech during the opening ceremony of the 'July 15 Martyrs’ Monument' at the presidential complex in Ankara. AFP photo
‘The New Sultan: Erdoğan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey’ by Soner Çağaptay (IB Tauris, 240 pages, $25)
In 2014 Soner Çağaptay published “The Rise of Turkey: The 21st Century’s First Muslim Power.” The book described Turkey as a dynamic force whose power had risen steadily over the past 20 years. It was not blind to the authoritarianism of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but it optimistically argued that a stable and democratic future was still up for grabs.
Erdoğan and the crisis of modern TurkeyThree years on Çağaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute think tank, appears to have had a change of heart. The title of his new book, “The New Sultan: Erdoğan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey,” gives a darker prognosis. Such a sharp about-face illustrates the deterioration of Turkey’s image abroad in recent years. It has also prompted ridicule of the conventional wisdom spouted by think tank pundits.
But the two books are not as simplistic as they appear at first glance. “The Rise of Turkey” was more skeptical about the country’s direction than its title suggested. “The New Sultan” pulls no punches in condemning Erdoğan’s policies, but it also gives a sensitive background context to his life and political upbringing. It does not make the reader any more optimistic.
The book sketches Erdoğan’s upbringing in the tough Istanbul district of Kasımpaşa. The son of a city ferryboat worker who migrated from Anatolia, as a boy Erdoğan sold simits on the streets and attended a conservative religious imam-hatip school. His rugged upbringing can still be seen in his mannerisms and speech today, appealing to many ordinary Turks proud that “he is one of us.”
Çağaptay charts how Erdoğan started out among nationalist Islamists in student politics of the 1970s. It was a turbulent decade in Turkey, as left-wing and right-wing groups waged bloody turf wars across the country. Cold War political Islam was defined by staunch anti-Communism and scepticism about the capitalist West, believing that both were stoking social and political turmoil.
Political Islam was inadvertently helped by neoliberal economic measures and the official “Turkish-Islamic synthesis” ideology imposed after the 1980 military coup. Erdoğan rose gradually through the ranks of Islamist politics through the 1980s and his breakthrough came when he was elected Istanbul mayor in 1994. His municipal administration earned a reputation for pious competence, but in 1999 he was barred from politics and jailed after delivering a rabble rousing religious poem at a public rally. The ban was lifted and he became prime minister in 2003 after the new Justice and Development Party (AKP) entered office.
In the AKP’s early years, optimists praised its apparent commitment to Turkey’s EU membership bid, liberal economic measures, and commitment to challenging the political influence of the military (often simplistically characterized as a “secular elite”). It also expanded health services and infrastructure, winning the hearts of many long-marginalized voters. The party included traditional center-right figures in its ranks and had the support of liberals hoping it would provide a positive “model” for the Middle East.
Reality has turned out differently. A longer work is required to address the many twists of Erdoğan’s years in office, but Çağaptay gives the general contours. This includes his close alliance then bitter break with the network of U.S.-based Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen, whose supporters are thought to have been behind last year’s military coup attempt. Çağaptay is rightly harsh on both, describing their clash as a “raw power struggle” far removed from the self-righteous rhetoric of either side.
Throughout Erdoğan’s career, every short-term setback has actually only empowered him in the long run. Casting himself as a victim boosts his appeal among Turkey’s conservatives. As Çağaptay writes: “Erdoğan’s biggest strength as a politician and biggest weakness as a citizen is that despite being in tight control of the country, he feels as if he is still an outsider.” Today he has reached a sweet spot where he can wave away every unfortunate event as the work of dark forces trying to sabotage Turkey’s historic rise. This rallies enough support to keep him in power, but at the expense of an increasingly paranoid and unstable social fabric. The personality cult around Erdoğan today instrumentalizes Islam to serve a deep-seated ambition for prestige and national assertion as heir of the great Ottoman Empire.
Erdoğan has also been far shrewder than his opponents. Çağaptay writes about how today “the gap between various groups in the Turkish opposition can be wider than the gaps between Erdoğan and his opponents.” The president himself has deftly exploited and exacerbated these divisions, “extending an olive branch to one while persecuting the other.” His authoritarianism is the natural result of a worldview that sees only his movement as the true representative of “the people.” In true populist fashion, “detractors can only be representing foreign interests, acting as ‘proxies’ for outside actors,” writes Çağaptay.
The book strikes a pessimistic tone about Turkey’s future. Çağaptay recognizes that the country has passed a dangerous Rubicon whereby Erdoğan and almost all government officials are today left with “no graceful way to exit the scene.” Amid swirling accusations of corruption and a wild spiral of repressions, many are now making zero sum calculations in which it is either public office or jail.
This being the case, Çağaptay’s sensible diagnosis for bringing Turkey back from the brink - recommitting to the EU and expanding rights and liberties for all - looks rather naïve. Çağaptay suggests that Erdoğan's "iron fist" rule has a natural limit considering the “growing number of middle-class Turks who increasingly want a free society.” This classic liberal theory may apply in some circumstances; it is doubtful whether reality will conform in today’s Turkey.
* A version of this review was first published in the Times Literary Supplement. Follow the Turkey Book Talk podcast via iTunes here, Stitcher here, Podbean here, or Facebook here, or Twitter here.
QUOTED: "outstanding and wide-ranging book."
"The New Sultan, besides being an important companion for seasoned Turkey watchers is also a very valuable reference for anyone trying to understand how events since 2007 have given way to the current situation."
"For anyone interested in understanding how Turkey has reached this particular point in its history, and what the future will likely have in store, The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey is a well-researched and very informative read."
The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey
Soner Cagaptay’s new book is an insightful read for anyone interested in understanding how Turkey has reached this particular point in its history, and what Erdoğan’s enduring legacy will be.
by Chris R. Kilford | Dec 4, 2017
The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey
Soner Cagaptay is the director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and released The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey in July 2017.
Purchase on Amazon
Frequently seen as a modern-day Atatürk by his supporters and a revisionist anti-Atatürk by his detractors, there is no doubt that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will go down in history as one of Turkey’s most influential leaders. For Turks, accustomed as they are to endless domestic political upheavals since the Turkish Republic was founded in 1923, the election of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002 was a welcome relief. Indeed, the previous year had seen the Turkish economy brought to its knees and only rescued with the injection of billions of IMF dollars. As a result, voters turned to Erdoğan in the hope that his government would finally address decades of miss-management and corruption.
In his first years in office, Erdoğan certainly did try to confront many of the issues that had dogged the Republic since its foundation. He worked hard to end the long-standing conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) while curtailing the military`s role in Turkish society. He also presided over a period of significant economic growth with his sights also set on joining the European Union. Along the way, many Turks bought into his vision of a confident, prosperous country playing a leading economic and political role regionally and internationally. It was no wonder that after 2002, the AKP triumphed in four successive parliamentary elections.
More recently, though, Turkey’s fortunes have taken a turn for the worse, prompting Soner Cagaptay, the director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to ask “what will Erdoğan’s enduring legacy be?” It is a question he sets out to answer in his outstanding and wide-ranging book, The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey.
“The economy will be Erdoğan’s Achilles heel.”
Today, Cagaptay writes, Turkey is “in trouble, very deep trouble.” In trouble because of a growing domestic political divide, Ankara’s failed post-Arab Spring Middle Eastern policy, a destructive war of words with the European Union, a deteriorating relationship with Washington, a continuing and brutal war with the PKK, numerous terrorist attacks and a failed military coup in July 2016 that left over 200 dead. Moreover, in the aftermath of the military uprising, widespread purges targeted anyone even remotely associated with the United States based Turkish Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen. It was Gülen, said the Turkish government who was ultimately behind the coup attempt. The impact of all this unrest, combined with a continuing state of emergency, is best demonstrated by the near collapse of Turkey’s tourist industry, declining investor confidence and a sinking Turkish lira.
It was, of course, never meant to be this way. “When Erdoğan came to power in 2002, Turkey was,” Cagaptay writes, “a country of mostly poor people; it is now a country of mostly middle-income citizens.” However, the golden years for Erdoğan and the AKP, “when Turkey presented itself as the exception to the relative disorder and instability in the Middle East,” seem like a long time ago now. Indeed, the march towards an advanced economy, regional power status and improved democracy has become somewhat like the march of an Ottoman band on parade – very slow. Not surprisingly, Cagaptay is quick to recognize that as the 2019 national elections for the position of President and the Grand National Assembly approach, “the economy will be Erdoğan’s Achilles heel.”
Given the current state of affairs in Turkey, another important question that Cagaptay asks is “where does Turkey go from here?” There are, he offers, three possible paths all with Erdoğan at the centre and a fourth without him. The first path is a continuation of the current political polarization and impasse. The second path is the eventual creation of an authoritarian state under Erdoğan’s iron grip. The third path is one leading to outright civil war among Erdoğan’s supporters and those who oppose him. In each case, the outlook is grim. Cagaptay’s fourth path, a Turkey without Erdoğan and the political free-for-all that would follow, is not encouraging either.
Of course, it is hard to imagine a Turkey without Erdoğan at the helm, given his long political career. And a key strength of The New Sultan is the concise account of how his family, schooling and work experience shaped the future President. He was, Cagaptay writes, the boy who came from the other side of Istanbul’s tracks to eventually become the city’s most successful mayor. Along the way, his religious upbringing would make him an unswerving champion of political Islam.
“He was the boy who came from the other side of Istanbul’s tracks to eventually become the city’s most successful mayor.”
The New Sultan, besides being an important companion for seasoned Turkey watchers is also a very valuable reference for anyone trying to understand how events since 2007 have given way to the current situation. Indeed, the last decade witnessed a failed military-led “e-coup” in 2007 designed to prevent the appointment of Abdullah Gül as President, the spread of the Gülen movement within government, the Ergenekon and Balyoz show trials that largely targeted secularists and the military, the 2013 Gezi Park anti-government protest and, as previously mentioned, the 2016 attempted coup. In each case, Cagaptay provides just the right amount of detail to put matters into context.
All through the last decade, Cagaptay continues, Erdoğan has, “gradually alienated large swaths of Turkish society,” and pushed “ultra-conservative and non-egalitarian Islamist social and political values onto the rest of the country.” Certainly, the April 2017 referendum, in which a narrow margin of Turks voted to adopt a presidential system of government, has also served to further exacerbate domestic social divisions. In Erdogan’s Turkey, he continues, individual rights and freedoms have steadily eroded, journalists languish in jail and the secular education system is no more.
Is there a way out of the morass? With Erdoğan at the helm, Cagaptay replies, there is not. Yes, Erdoğan has transformed the economy but when he does leave office one day, “there will be few institutions left standing to keep the country together.” If there is a chance to turn matters around, he maintains, Erdoğan would need to reverse many of the domestic policy choices he has made over the last decade, which is a highly unlikely proposition. Nor is another AKP led, Kurdish peace overture conceivable. In fact, the fighting between the Turkish government and the PKK in south-eastern Turkey has increased dramatically since July 2015. Moreover, once the so-called Islamic State is finally defeated in Syria, it’s not too farfetched to imagine that the violence in Turkey will intensify once well-equipped and battle-hardened Turkish-Kurdish fighters, who have been supporting their Syrian-Kurdish comrades, return home.
One of the most telling passages in Cagaptay’s book, pinpointing the cause of Turkey’s latest slide downwards, occurs in his final chapter Ending Turkey’s Crisis:
Turkey is simply too diverse demographically, too big economically and too complicated politically for one person to shape it in his own image against the backdrop of a democratic system and competing political forces. Democratically, Erdoğan cannot have his political cake and eat it. In other words, he can continue to shape Turkey from the top down only by ending it.
The long-term prognosis for democracy in Turkey then is not good, even if as Cagaptay believes, Turkey’s growing middle class could, at some point, summon the courage to face down the “cult of personality” that Erdoğan and his followers have created. But, as he also notes, this secular and liberal middle-class opposition lacks a charismatic leader of their own and Turkey’s current opposition parties offer little in the way of alternative policy choices. The recent formation of the Good Party (İyi Parti in Turkish) led by Meral Akşener has created some excitement but will more than likely divide the anti-AKP vote even further.
In the end, for anyone interested in understanding how Turkey has reached this particular point in its history, and what the future will likely have in store, The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey is a well-researched and very informative read.
The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey
by Soner Cagaptay
Reviewed by John Waterbury
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s leader since 2003, has had an impact on the republic arguably equal to that of its transformational founder, Kemal Ataturk. Turkey’s economy has boomed under Erdogan; its middle class has tripled in size during his rule and now includes around 40 percent of the population. But Cagaptay sees Erdogan as a deeply flawed figure who threatens Turkey’s democracy. After the economic troubles of the 1990s, Erdogan, whose politics are shaped by an uneasy mix of Islamism and constitutional secularism, consolidated a center-right coalition of pro-market and Islamist supporters that has never quite exceeded 50 percent of the electorate. After the 2007 election, in which his Justice and Development Party, known as the AKP, came close to receiving a majority, Erdogan began to eliminate all checks on his power: the military, the press, and the judiciary were all suborned. At first, Erdogan was aided by Fethullah Gulen, an influential cleric with many followers in the security establishment. But in 2013, Erdogan broke with the Gulenists. In 2016, a failed coup allegedly organized by Gulenists gave Erdogan a pretext to purge the government, academia, and the media of not only Gulenists but also liberals and Kurds. Only an economic downturn could now loosen his grip on power.
In This Review
The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey
QUOTED: "The essence of the book’s argument is that everything is still up for grabs: Turkey could yet become an open and inclusive society, a global player and a dynamic economy projecting soft power in its region, or it could fall back and become a basket case again. In these caliginous times, even this conclusion feels like wishful thinking."
March 13 2014 By WILLIAM ARMSTRONG william.armstrong@hdn.com.tr
‘The Rise of Turkey: The 21st Century’s First Muslim Power’
William ARMSTRONG - william.armstrong@hdn.com.tr
‘The Rise of Turkey: The 21st Century’s First Muslim Power’
‘The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century’s First Muslim Power’ by Soner Çağaptay (Potomac Books, $26, 192 pages)
In 2006, the BBC’s former Turkey correspondent Chris Morris published a slim book called “The New Turkey.” It focused on the major changes underway in the country and was intended as a nudge in the ribs of the European Union to accept its new negotiator into the fold. Almost eight years have passed, but the optimism of Soner Çağaptay’s “The Rise of Turkey” is very reminiscent of Morris’ book. The focus has moved beyond the tired EU question and on to Turkey’s regional and global ambitions, but the tone is almost the same. It’s almost as if the last eight years haven’t happened. Çağaptay - director of the Turkish Research Program of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy - writes that “with stars aligned in its favor … the ball is in the Turks’ court.” Such sunny optimism was widespread 10 years ago, but today it reads like a nostalgic throwback, out of synch with the gloomier spirit of the age.
Clocking in at just 150 pages plus footnotes, the book rattles along snappily and is full of quotable sound bites. Çağaptay lines up all the familiar figures: Turkey’s economic output has more than trebled (in nominal terms) since 2002; its trade volume has increased five-fold (in nominal terms), from $82 billion in 2000 to $389 billion in 2012; while the EU has grown at an average of 1.3 percent over the past decade, Turkey has grown at an average of 5.3 percent: “Gone is the Turkey of yesteryear, a poor country begging to get into the EU, and in its place is a new Turkey, confident and booming as the world around it suffers from economic meltdown.” At his most Pollyannaish, Çağaptay writes that “Turkey has not felt this confident since the heyday of Ottoman imperial majesty in the sixteenth century.” He is no apologist for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government and is aware of its many failings, but he still seems to cling to all the hopes that Washington think tankers harbored during its early years in government.
In fact, those hopes were being held onto long after the AKP’s earliest years in charge. A defendable case could still perhaps even have been made about its record only 12 months ago, when the author was applying the finishing touches to this book. Sure - so the argument would have gone - Prime Minister Erdoğan was a little authoritarian, but maybe that was necessary to sort out Turkey's endemic problems. The peace process with the Kurds was in its early stages, the economic indicators still looked good, and the Gezi Park protests were months away, along with the corruption probe and the government’s panic-induced bulldozing of the rule of law (a power grab had already been going on, but it was greatly accelerated after the graft case). In a sense, Çağaptay is a victim of the country’s rapidly changing agenda. As he watched the spread of the Gezi protests last June and the outside view of the Turkish government finally nosedived, it must have dawned on him that his book needed substantial redrafting. But he’s optimistic in the redraft, too, taking the line that the protests were a “profound blessing” for Turkey that indicated the rise of “a middle-class society with democracy at its core.”
The essence of the book’s argument is that everything is still up for grabs: Turkey could yet become an open and inclusive society, a global player and a dynamic economy projecting soft power in its region, or it could fall back and become a basket case again. In these caliginous times, even this conclusion feels like wishful thinking. Still, although the outlook isn’t great at the moment, it would be foolish to make cast iron predictions about a place where there’s always a surprise waiting around the corner.